Informations

Submission of abstracts will be possible between May 15, 2017 and July 14, 2017, for oral presentations or posters. The language of presentation will be English. The notifications of acceptance will be sent before July, 28, 2017.

There is no registration fee, lunch and coffee breaks will be provided at the location of the workshop.

Invited speakers :

Filipo Giorgi (ICTP, Italy)

Mathieu Vrac (LSCE, France)

Diego Macias-Moy (JRC - European Commission)

Philippe Drobinski (LMD, France)

Mohamed Elloumi (INRAT, Tunisia)

Denis Ruelland (HSM, France)

Rasmus Benestad (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway)

Claudio Piani (American University of Paris)

Joël Guiot (CEREGE, France)

Michel Le Page (CESBIO, France)

Fabio Benedetti (LOV, France)

Christophe Randin (Univ. Bâle, Switzerland)

The different sessions are :

 1/ Climate change modelling (Global and Regional climate models, Med-CORDEX, paleo-climate reconstructions, feedback effects)

Samuel Somot, Rachid Cheddadi, Erika Coppola, Laurent Li, Fabien Solmon

This session aims at discussing (1) dynamical climate modelling tools such as General Circulation Models ; atmosphere, ocean, land-surface or fully-coupled Regional Climate Models that are relevant for the study of Mediterranean climate change and (2) scientific knowledge obtained with these models concerning the regional impacts of climate change over the Mediterranean region for the physical variables relevant to the various MISTRALS programs (atmosphere, aerosol, sea, land, lake, river, cities). Studies such as published literature review, multi-model analysis based on large coordinated initiatives (CMIP, Med-CORDEX, Euro-CORDEX, PMIP), use of pioneer climate modelling methods (convection-permitting RCM, fully-coupled RCM), modelling studies dealing with past, present and future climate scales are welcome. One of the objectives of this session is to initiate or enhance collaborations between climate modellers at any scale and other scientific communities interested in using climate modelling data.

2/ Interaction between climate models and impact models (modelling chains, propagation of uncertainties)

François Guilhaumon, Nicolas Martin, Florent Mouillot, Lionel Jarlan

In response to global changes, agro-hydro-ecosystems are affected in their physico-chemical characteristics, dynamics and functioning. The availability of natural resources is thus modified in terms of quantity, seasonality and temporal variability, in such a way that the species they inhabit are impacted in their physiology, biology and distribution. Understanding and modeling these phenomena requires the use of modeling chains integrating models from very different horizons: climate science, physics, biogeochemistry, hydrology, ecology... When these models are coupled, uncertainties relative to each element can spread over the chain. The goal of this session is to present different modeling chains used to analyze the impacts of climate change in various scientific fields, paying particular attention to the propagation of uncertainties and the methods to quantify them.

3/ Downscaling approaches (statistical methods, bias correction, weather generators)

Julie Carreau, Benoit Hingray, Marco Turco, Jean-Philippe Vidal

General Circulation Models (GCMs) represent the principal physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface and they are used to study the response of the climate system to several scenarios of increase in radiative forcing. This session focuses on statistical approaches that are employed to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of GCMs in order to suit the needs of impacts models. All types of statistical downscaling models are of interest be it transfer functions, stochastic weather generators, weather typing based methods or model output statistics (including bias correction methods). The session will focus on studies introducing new approaches or comparing a panel of existing methodologies as well as analyses on the pros and cons of state-of-the-art methods.

 Contributions focusing on one or more of the following issues are for instance particularly welcome:

• Downscaling skill for subdaily to pluriannual scales, for frequent to high impact weather situations
• Downscaling of multivariate / spatial weather scenarios, including scenarios for hydrometeorological applications
• Application of downscaling methods for reconstructions/projections in a modified climate context, including estimation of temporal transferability of the methods / uncertainty from models and internal variability of climate
• Influence of quality/type of reanalyses / forcing data

4/ Pluridisciplinary approaches for impact assessment (links between models and socio-economic approaches, anthropic scenarios, communicating uncertainties)

Mehrez Zribi, Marielle Montginoul, Yunne Shin

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot of climate change. Apart from the climatic trends towards less precipitation and increased temperature, human action also generates anthropogenic changes to be considered in this region that is impacted by socio-economic dynamics (agriculture, Fishing, industry, tourism, etc.). This reality implies a multidisciplinary analysis of the future evolution of resources. This way, it is made possible to build anthropogenic scenarios based on climate scenarios that take into account the social, political and economic dimensions by replacing them into an historical perspective. These scenarios, which can be discussed and elaborated with stakeholders, provide a qualitative understanding of the effects of human action on future resources, partly quantified through management models. They can also help to understand better the dynamics and uncertainties of the different evolution scenarios. The main objective of this session is to illustrate, through various scientific works, this multidisciplinary dynamic.